COVID Check-In: Post-COVID Economic Forecasts Need Appropriate Lenses
Forum Director of Research Noreen Sugrue provides regular updates on the implications of the latest COVID-19 data. Here, she discusses why post-pandemic economic forecasts are insufficient without racial-ethnic and gender considerations.
By Noreen Sugrue, Director of Research
The Brookings Institution has issued a report analyzing job gain and job loss projections through 2029. The report analyzes Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) information to forecast and quantify “potential long-term structural changes that may result from consumer and firm behavior due to the pandemic.” It states:
“These projections are noteworthy because they represent a plausible effort to forecast factors such as the nation’s increased avoidance of interpersonal contact, firms’ embrace of telework, and expanded demand for information technology (IT)—all amid plenty of ongoing uncertainty.”
The job prospects for Illinois and the Chicago area are reasonably promising. Worst-case-scenario projections provide hope and assurances that the state and its largest population center likely will weather this storm—that is, until you examine the data using a racial-ethnic lens. The following statement from the report indirectly suggests that between now and 2029, economic and structural inequities could worsen, with the lines of demarcation being racial and ethnic. The authors state:
"Professional, scientific, and technical services as well as information industries are slated to grow even faster than in earlier forecasts, while leisure and sales industries are now expected to grow as much as 10% slower than before."
In other words, the jobs and occupations where growth will occur are where the White population is already overrepresented. At the same time, the jobs and occupations where there is projected to be decline—potentially significant decline—are where the Latino and Black populations are disproportionately employed.
Before COVID, Latino rates of labor-force participation were among the highest across racial-ethnic groups. Latina women, for example, had a rapidly accelerating growth rate of labor-force participation pre-COVID. In 2021, the pandemic has caused them to now have a high unemployment rate and the lowest rate of re-entry into the workforce.
As we think about how to address what COVID has exposed, exacerbated, and broken, we must interrogate what it means to “fix” something. We must be must clear about what our focus is as we allocate resources and realign public policies.
When we focus on fixing what COVID broke, we require data that all must be analyzed through racial-ethnic and gender lenses. These data include differences in employment, labor-force participation rates, educational attainment, home ownership, and retirement savings pre- and post-COVID. We also need to examine how home ownership, small-business ownership, and job creation by small businesses have changed post-COVID.
At the same time, we need to recognize the structural inequities and racism that COVID exposed and exacerbated. Those long-standing stains must be deep cleaned. We must examine longer-term historical trends in, for example, employment, home ownership, access to capital, access to credit, educational attainment, and retirement programs with racial-ethnic and gender lenses. Only then can we begin to equitably distribute resources aimed at addressing systemic racism and inequities.